TL;DR
Get the little things that make your day delivered free — and shop member deals
- Fast, free delivery on millions of items
- Access to Prime Big Deal Days deals on October 6–7
- Prime Video, Amazon Music and more included
Tom Wojcik’s report, with figures current to Sept. 26, 2026, follows the effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure from oil prices and fuel supply to fertiliser, harvests and European energy security. It also describes pressures on Poland, where coal, imported gas and borrowing underpin heating and military spending. The scale and timing of further effects remain uncertain.
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed to tanker traffic since March, after US and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February, according to Tom Wojcik’s report. The resulting disruption is affecting oil markets and raising risks for fuel supplies, fertiliser and food production, with consequences reaching Europe and Wojcik’s home country, Poland.
Wojcik reports that tanker traffic through the strait has fallen by more than 90 percent. The International Energy Agency describes the disruption as the largest oil supply disruption the market has seen. Brent crude, which had fallen to pre-war levels during a fragile ceasefire in early summer, was near $97 a barrel in early September, around $105 by mid-month and touched $108 on Sept. 24.
On Sept. 22, Iran gave Washington a written proposal for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, a phased reopening of the strait and an end to the US naval blockade. Wojcik says Washington rejected the proposal. The report also describes shipping costs and some tanker-related investments rising sharply: day rates for some supertankers reached about $860,000 on Sept. 10, compared with less than $100,000 before the war. The Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF was up more than 2,300 percent for the year by early September, though its manager said rates would fall if the strait reopened.
The pressure is also visible in fuel and farming. In France, official figures cited by Wojcik showed that 15 percent of stations had run out of petrol or diesel on Sept. 20, up from 11 percent two days earlier. The government ruled out a national shortage. Separately, the strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns scarcity could tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027.
From Oil Routes to Food Bills
The report’s central point is that the effects of a shipping disruption spread beyond the commodity at its source. Higher fuel costs affect transport, while fertiliser shortages can reduce harvests after a delay. That lag makes the food impact harder to see immediately: grain already planted can keep reaching markets before smaller harvests arrive.
Wojcik’s account puts these pressures alongside existing food insecurity. It says 2025 was the first year in the history of the Global Report on Food Crises with two confirmed famines, in Gaza and Sudan, and estimates food assistance funding fell 59 percent from 2022 to 2025. The World Food Programme estimates sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity. These are attributed estimates, not a count of people already affected by the Hormuz closure.
For Poland, the connections are immediate because the country borders Ukraine, heats itself with coal and imported gas, and is financing military spending through borrowing, Wojcik writes. The report frames the risk as a test of systems built around dependable supply and limited reserves. It does not establish that Poland faces an imminent heating shortage.
A Fragile Ceasefire and Tight Supplies
The report describes a sequence of overlapping pressures in 2026. US and Israeli operations against Iran began in late February, and Iran kept the Strait of Hormuz closed from March using drones, missiles, mines and small boats, according to Wojcik. A ceasefire briefly brought prices back to pre-war levels in early summer, but it did not hold. The detour around the Gulf also faces risk at the Red Sea’s Bab al-Mandab chokepoint; Wojcik reports that Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port during September.
Other fuel disruptions add to the strain. Ukrainian drones have hit Russian refineries at least 70 times this year, roughly once every four days by the IEA’s count cited in the report. Russia’s refining output has fallen to a two-decade low, half of its six biggest diesel plants cut or halted output during September, and Moscow restricted fuel exports. US diesel passed $6 a gallon on Sept. 10 for the first time, according to Wojcik.
A separate European example is the potato harvest. After a glut in 2025, Polish growers lifted about seven million tonnes, 18 percent more than the year before. Growers in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany then planted 14 percent less, the report says. Following five heatwaves and drought, their organisation expected a harvest down 25 percent. In Belgium, processing potato prices rose from €10 to €150 a tonne within days.
“Scarcity will cut yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027.”
— UN Food and Agriculture Organization, as cited by Tom Wojcik
The Scale of Coming Shortfalls
The duration of the strait closure and the prospects for renewed negotiations remain unclear in the material provided. The report says Washington rejected Iran’s Sept. 22 proposal, but it does not establish when or on what terms shipping might resume. It also relays a report that the US president expects bombing to resume after the November midterm elections; that expectation is not presented as a settled decision.
The eventual food impact is also still developing. The FAO warning covers late 2026 and 2027, while the report gives no final yield figures for those periods. Its excerpt begins to describe higher grain prices but ends before providing the full details, so the extent of that increase cannot be stated here. Nor does the available material quantify the likely effect on Polish winter heating supplies or household bills.
Shipping and Harvests Ahead
The next indicators are whether tanker traffic through Hormuz resumes, whether diplomatic efforts produce a new ceasefire, and whether the Red Sea route remains available. Oil prices and tanker day rates could change quickly if the strait reopens; the Breakwave fund manager cited by Wojcik has said rates would fall in that event.
For food supplies, attention will shift to fertiliser availability and harvest results through late 2026 and into 2027. The report’s immediate figures show how fuel prices and regional crop losses are already drawing attention, but they do not settle the size of future shortages. In Poland, the report’s stated concern is how energy dependence and limited reserves could leave the country exposed as winter approaches.
Key Questions
What happened in the Strait of Hormuz?
Tom Wojcik reports that Iran has kept the strait closed since March, after US and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February. Tanker traffic through it fell by more than 90 percent, according to the report.
Why could the closure affect food supplies?
The strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser. The FAO warns that scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027.
Does the report say France is running out of fuel?
No. It cites official data showing 15 percent of stations had run out of petrol or diesel on Sept. 20, while the French government ruled out a national shortage. The report says many of the affected stations belonged to TotalEnergies, where a price cap drew drivers seeking lower prices.
What is known about Poland’s winter heating?
Wojcik says Poland relies on coal and imported gas for heating, but the provided report does not quantify winter supply or forecast household heating costs.
Source: hn
NFL season / tailgating Picks
team gear
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
